Top economic experts are increasingly factoring extreme AI disruption into their models, according to a sweeping paper by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), and numerous top universities. The study surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI specialists, and 38 "superforecasters" — consistently accurate analysts — and found that all three groups expect significant AI progress in the years to come and agree that faster AI progress generally means lower employment rates overall.
On average, economists assigned a 47 percent probability to "moderate" AI progress by 2030, defined as systems that can operate semi-autonomous research labs, produce high-quality novels, and complete complex projects with oversight. They gave a 14 percent probability to a "rapid progress" scenario, in which AI could complete years of research in days, generate "Grammy/Pulitzer-caliber media," and operate with the agency of a CEO.
When it comes to job replacement, the median economist expected a 1.6 percent decrease in the overall labor force participation rate (LFP) over the next five years. That measure, which covers the entire working-age population, currently sits at around 61.9 percent. Under the rapid scenario, economists expect U.S. LFP to dip to 59.3 percent by 2030 — the first time in over five decades it would fall below 60 percent.
"There's enough conversation around this that we certainly should, as a country, be talking about what sorts of policies make sense in a world where the way employment and careers work now changes a lot in the next two to five years," Robert Seamans, an economist at New York University whose previous work was cited in the study, told the New York Times.
Yet the researchers note there is no consensus that a dystopia is inevitable. They point to historical periods with trends similar to the worst-case AI scenarios, such as the era before World War II, marked by severe economic inequality across Europe and the U.S. As the paper states, the "wealth inequality forecasts under the rapid scenario describe a US economy that would be substantially more unequal than today — but not unrecognizably so."
Whether the outcome is a routine economic disruption or something unprecedented depends on whether, and how quickly, businesses can use AI to make profitable gains. The track record so far suggests workers have some breathing room — but how much remains uncertain even among the experts.
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